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Quantifying Games Experience in Games Qualification, pt. 2

May 11, 2022 by

Recap: In part 1 of this series, I explored the veteran & rookie participation percentages at previous Games & took a stab at predicting who might be in Madison this August.

This week I'm tackling the women's field.

In 2021, 300 female athletes took the Semifinals stage. 245 were Games rookies, hoping to punch their first ticket to Madison (81.67%). The remaining 55 (18.33%) were hungry to get back to Wisconsin.

Of those that qualified for the Games (note: four athletes who qualified did not participate), 12 were rookies (3%) & 28 were veterans (7%). If rookies & veterans qualified at the same rate, you'd expect a similar rookie:veteran ratio at the Games: about 32 rookies v 8 veterans—not the case.

So, 12 rookies of 245 Semifinal competitors is a qualification percentage of 4.90%. The 28 veterans of the 55 who competed at Semifinals experienced a 50.91% qualification rate.

How does this compare to previous years?

  • 2015: Rookies: 5.13% | Veterans: 59.52%
  • 2016: Rookies: 5.11% | Veterans: 55.32%
  • 2017: Rookies: 2.96% | Veterans: 68.09%
  • 2018: Rookies: 4.26% | Veterans: 58.70%

Average qualification rate among rookies (2015 - 2018): 4.31% v 2021 qualification rate of 4.90%.

Average qualification rate amount veterans (2015 - 2018): 60.41% v 2021 qualification rate of 50.91%

So 2021 proved to be a little anomalistic with a few more rookies qualifying than in previous years. Lumping that into the batch for a 5-year average (not including 2019 & 2020): 4.47% for rookies & 58.51% for veterans.

Ok, ok, ok, ok, let's get to the good stuff: what does all that mean for 2022 Games qualifiers.

As of this writing, there are 298 Semifinals competitors; 256 are Games rookies & 42 are Games veterans.

If trends hold, you could expect anywhere from 7 (2.96%) - 13 (5.13%) rookies & 23 (55.32%) - 28 (68.09%) veterans making their way to Madison.

How does that hold up with current power rankings provided by Tyler Watkins?

Using his power rankings & the cut offs of each Semifinal, you're left with this list (in no particular order):

  • Haley Adams
  • Alexis Raptis
  • Kristi Eramo O'Connell
  • Christine Kolenbrander
  • Arielle Loewen
  • Laura Horvath
  • Gabriela Migała
  • Ragnheiður Sara Sigmundsdottir
  • Lucy Campbell
  • Oihana Moya
  • Tia-Clair Toomey
  • Kara Saunders
  • Madeline Sturt
  • Danielle Brandon
  • Marisa Flowers
  • Brooke Wells
  • Shelby Neal
  • Baylee Rayl
  • Michelle Merand
  • Yuko Sakuyama
  • Seher Kaya
  • Mallory O'Brien
  • Feeroozeh Saghafi
  • Amanda Barnhart
  • Emily Rolfe
  • Dani Speegle
  • Carolyne Prevost
  • Emma Lawson
  • Alison Scudds
  • Freya Moosbrugger
  • Caroline Conners
  • Emma Mcquaid
  • Samantha Briggs
  • Jacqueline Dahlstrøm
  • Emma Tall
  • Tayla Howe
  • Valentina Rangel
  • Julia Kato

14 rookies (5.71%) & 24 veterans (43.64%). With only 12 rookies from 2021 & 9 rookies from 2018, 14 rookies (with the chance of 16 rookies) would be the highest rookie count at the Games since 2016 (14) or 2014 (17).

Upcoming parts in this series:

  • Pt. 3 a breakdown on how likelihoods change based on years of Games experience
  • Pt. 4 a breakdown of qualification probabilities based on continent

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