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Last Chance Qualifier: How Close Are They Now?

June 30, 2022 by

Events 1 & 2 are all wrapped up for the 2022 Last Chance Qualifier.

As athletes gear up for events 3 & 4, I asked myself: at this halfway point in the comp, how close are athletes now?

& as all good questions seem to do, that question lead into the following questions:

First, what was the average finish for Games qualifiers from last year's Last Chance Qualifier?

Second, how did last year's field move after the first two events? After the first three events?

Third, based on average finish last year, who still has a chance to punch their ticket this year?

Fourth, based on performance so far, how likely is an athlete to get 300+ points & (hopefully) qualify?

Methods

I pulled the 2021 Last Chance Qualifier data from the CrossFit Games leaderboard.

I also snagged the 2022 LCQ leaderboard so far.

I took averages of last year's qualifiers, as well as averages of their rankings in events 1 & 2, 1 - 3, & 1 - 4.

I calculated averages for 2022 LCQ competitors & compared against 2021.

I calculated the number of possible ranking combinations remaining to get an athlete to 300+ points.

Results

2021 LCQ Games Qualifiers Average Finish

The average finish for the 2021 Last Chance Qualifier in the women's division was 5 (Emma Tall: 4.5; Kristi Eramo O'Connell: 5.5). For the men, it was 5.875 (Roman Khrennikov: 5.25; Alexandre Caron: 6.5).

Knowing the average placement lends a little insight into the general performance necessary to qualify for the Games.

2021 LCQ Ranking Movement

On the men's side, only 7 of all 29 competitors improved their average rank as the competition progressed. 12 of the 28 women competitors improved. This means most competitors either did worse from event to event or jumped around a little more based on the event.

Here's another interesting stat regarding average rank during the 2021 LCQ: across the entire field, only 5 athletes (3 men, 2 women) consistently averaged in top-5 in ranking average after 2, 3, & 4 events.

Men's Average Rank after 2, 3, & 4 Events
Women's Average Rank after 2, 3, & 4 Events


2022 Qualifying Chance after 2 Events

I'm going to lead with a big assumption: we can assume that last year's LCQ was representative of what we'll see this year, specifically in how average rank plays out in either field.

Assuming an average placement of 5.5 (2021: Eramo O'Connell) or better is necessary for Games qualification on the women's side, then athletes in current positions of 1 through 10 still have a chance.

On the men's side, an average placement of 6.5 (2021: Caron) or better would mean spots 1 through 11 still have a shot.

This assumption breaks hard if the remaining two events showcase athletes currently ranked low in the standings, essentially diluting the early high performance of athletes ranked high in the standings.

2022 Likelihood to 300+ pts after 2 Events

This one was fun. Here's the idea:

Based on an athlete's performance in the first two events & with two events remaining, what's the likelihood (positive outcomes / possible outcomes) that an athlete scores 300+ points.

Why 300+ points? Last year, only one athlete with 300+ points did not qualify (Tyler Christophel, 304).

In other words, if you get 300+ points, you have a good shot at qualifying.

Here's an example: if an athlete has 100 points after two events, in order to get 300 points, he'd need to win out: 1 out of 729 (number of competitors squared) possible outcomes (0.137%).

Both Dunne & Koski have a little better than a 1/3 shot to crest the 300+ point mark with everyone else below 10%. All that means is Dunne & Koski have a little more room for error relative to the field.

Remaining men competitors with a chance to score 300 points.

On the women's side, we see a slightly different story due in part to field size as well as point distribution across the field.

In this case, we have six women with 30%+ chance for 300+ points. Not a guarantee by any means, but a considerable safety net depending on an athlete's ability to tackle the next two events.

Remaining women competitors with a chance to score 300+ points.

IMPORTANT: Keep in mind these numbers have NOTHING to do with how well an athlete will perform in the final two events: it's simply the availability of placement combinations to 300+ points. The closer to 300, the higher the likelihood an athlete would get 300 & the more flexible his outcome in events 3 & 4.

Can't wait to see how the next two events shake out!

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