Morning Chalk Up Community

2022 Games Rankings: Less Prediction, More Spreadsheet Fun

July 28, 2022 by

Let's get a few things out of the way.

  1. Trained statisticians & analysts take years to develop their processes & algorithms to predict their sport. I am not trained nor have I spent years developing the following.
  2. Predicting any sport has a measure of error. Predicting a sport where the competition changes year after year compounds that measure of error.
  3. The following rankings are less my predictions & more an nerdy way to pass the time while my family is out of town.

When I set out to develop a ranking system, I knew that there would be others whose predictions would take many, many variables into consideration, trying to address the huuuuuge complexity that is the sport of CrossFit.

I knew I didn't want to spend the time creating a redundant system.

I knew that I wanted to find a system that piqued my curiosity—if I wasn't interested in the question, I wouldn't be interested in finding the answer.

So, here we are. I have a system that is pretty simplistic, isn't redundant, & was exciting to develop.

I've written before about my disillusion with taking the Open & Quarterfinals at face value for ranking Games contenders. The tests aren't Games-level, aren't on-site, & aren't on a very specific schedule.

The one saving grace of the Open & Quarterfinals is their universality—every Games contender competed in the Open & Quarterfinals.

On the flip side, the Semifinal competitions are more similar in nature to the Games—e.g., harder tests, in-person competing, external schedule. However, aside from the two HQ workouts, Semifinals were not universal, with some Semifinals testing swimming, others testing handstand walking or Husafell bag carries.

The question I found forming in my mind as I considered the pros & cons of scores from all three events was this: how did athlete performance differ from Open/Quarterfinals versus Semifinals?

& what would happen if that change in performance was reapplied to Open/Quarterfinal scores?

To demonstrate what I'm getting at, here's a not-so-hypothetical hypothetical:

Let's say an athlete's Open + Quarterfinal rankings (oqscore) when ranked in his Semifinal suggested he would take 8th, & instead he took 1st. His oqscore was 2070 while the athlete projected for first was 630. Going from a 2070-caliber performance to a 630-caliber performance is an improvement of 69.57%.

In my world of big assumptions & simple statistics, I take that to mean this athlete does well competing in a crowd.

Methods

Though I began to cover them above, here are my exact methods.

  1. Find all Semifinals athletes' oqscores (worldwide open event rankings + worldwide quarterfinal event rankings).
  2. Fina all Semifinals athletes' predicted placement based on oqscore.
  3. Find all Games athletes Semifinal placement, oqscores, & predicted Semifinal placement.
  4. Calculate the change from an athlete's oqscore to the corresponding oqscore of the place that athlete took in Semifinal competition (e.g., athlete A has an oqscore of 450 & took 2 which was predicted to need an oqscore of 300 or less).
  5. Apply the percentage change to the athlete's Open & Quarterfinal rankings & sum them, resulting in an adjusted oqscore.
  6. Add to the adjusted oqscore the worldwide rank for the Semifinal clean complex & legless rope climb events.
  7. Rank athletes.

Results

MEN

  1. Justin Medeiros
  2. Jeffrey Adler
  3. Saxon Panchik
  4. Brent Fikowski
  5. Jay Crouch
  6. Willy Georges
  7. Ricky Garard
  8. Dallin Pepper
  9. Jayson Hopper
  10. Lazar Dukic
  11. Travis Mayer
  12. Patrick Vellner
  13. Henrik Haapalainen
  14. Cole Sager
  15. Guilherme Malheiros
  16. Tudor Magda
  17. Noah Ohlsen
  18. Spencer Panchik
  19. Alexandre Caron
  20. Cole Greashaber
  21. Andre Houdet
  22. Alex Vigneault
  23. Roman Khrennikov
  24. Samuel Kwant
  25. Giorgos Karavis
  26. Bayden Brown
  27. Guillaume Briant
  28. Bjorgvin Gudmundsson
  29. Will Moorad
  30. Austin Spencer
  31. Jonne Koski
  32. Moritz Fiebig
  33. Uldis Upenieks
  34. Kealan Henry
  35. Nick Mathew
  36. Enrico Zenoni
  37. Colten Mertens
  38. Agustin Richelme
  39. Timothy Paulson
  40. Arthur Semenov

Notes:

Looking at the men's field, right off the bat I think BKG, Noah Olsen, Roman Khrennikov, & Colten Mertens are ranked too low. In BKG's case, his oqscore was so far ahead that the adjustment down for his 2nd place crushed his total score. Though Khrennikov was predicted to take first & took first, I suspect his rank is low because he hasn't needed to push himself in his region.

WOMEN

  1. Tia-Clair Toomey
  2. Mallory O'Brien
  3. Laura Horvath
  4. Haley Adams
  5. Jacqueline Dahlstrom
  6. Alexis Raptis
  7. Danielle Brandon
  8. Kara Saunders
  9. Amanda Barnhart
  10. Paige Semenza
  11. Kristi Eramo O'Connell
  12. Sydney Michalyshen
  13. Ellie Turner
  14. Karin Freyova
  15. Matilde Garnes
  16. Gabriela Migala
  17. Baylee Rayl
  18. Christine Kolenbrander
  19. Emma McQuaid
  20. Emma Lawson
  21. Dani Speegle
  22. Lucy Campbell
  23. Alex Gazan
  24. Thuri Helgadottir
  25. Victoria Campos
  26. Paige Powers
  27. Emily Rolfe
  28. Caroline Spencer
  29. Arielle Loewen
  30. Solveig Sigurdardottir
  31. Elisa Fuliano
  32. Julia Kato
  33. Freya Moosbrugger
  34. Elena Carratala Sanahuja
  35. Brooke Wells
  36. Rebecca Fuselier
  37. Seungyeon Choi
  38. Seher Kaya
  39. Carolyne Prevost
  40. Michelle Merand

Notes: Like the men there are some notable names that are ranked lower than I'd expect. Gabby Migala, Brooke Wells, & Emma Lawson are all athletes I'd predict to place higher. Migala's ranking suffered similar to BKG's: oqscore ranked predicted higher & the adjustment was likely too aggresive.

Conclusion

Though I like the general direction of this system for Games rankings, there are some definite bugs. First, an athlete that underperforms in Semifinals relative to their oqscore is at the mercy of the performance of other athletes. I don't like that. Second, there is still too much weight given to Open & Quarterfinal performance. Introducing a system to weight the Semifinal events heavier than the adjusted oqscore might balance that out.

Regardless, this year's Games is gonnsta be a treat. I can't wait to see how fitness is tested this year & which athletes rise to the top.

Get the Newsletter

For a daily digest of all things CrossFit. Community, Competitions, Athletes, Tips, Recipes, Deals and more.

This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.