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Can an Athlete Finish Top 30 After 20.1?

Good morning and welcome to the Morning Chalk Up. Today’s edition is powered by Prospera Supplements.

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“What’s simple to do is also simple not to do.” — Jim Rohn

Welcome to Open Week 2


Athletes in Canada and Australia squared off for the live 20.2 announcement. Khan Porter and Matt McLeod battled it out down under while Carolyne Prevost and Carol-Ann Reason-Thibault competed in Quebec.


Complete as many rounds as possible in 20 minutes of:
4 Dumbbell Thrusters (50 lbs / 35 lbs)
6 Toes-To-Bars
24 Double-Unders

Unofficial Results

  • Carol-Ann Reason-Thibault — 928 reps (27 + 10)
  • Carolyne Prevost — 830 reps (24 + 14)
  • Matt McLeod — 899 reps (26 + 15)
  • Khan Porter — 857 reps (25 + 7)

One big thing: Carol-Ann Reason-Thibault’s 928 reps is an unbelievable pace. Even as fast as she was moving, we’re betting we’ll see faster.

  • There are 1200 seconds in this workout: 20 minutes x 60 seconds.
  • Reason-Thibault finished 928 reps.
  • That’s 1 round every 44.5 seconds.
  • That’s also 1 rep every 1.29 seconds.

So what on earth happened to the livestream Morning Chalk Up?

Many of you logged on hoping to tune in to the Canadian live announcement. We experienced technical difficulties and our editor-in-chief Justin LoFranco hopped on YouTube to apologize.

Athlete Predictions: Probability of Finishing Top 30 After 20.1


Now that 20.1 scores are in we’re able to analyze the probability that an athlete finishes in the top 30 worldwide given their week 1 performance. Just like last season, athletes can qualify in two ways: as a national champion and top 20 worldwide which is why we’ve extended the line to the top 30.

If you only pay attention to one stat. In the past five years, only 12 athletes who placed outside the top 300 in week 1 finished 30th or better worldwide. 

About the models:

  • Note 1: Our models are based off the scores as they’re submitted. As part of the video verification process, CrossFit HQ may impose penalties that will adjust athletes’ scores. 
  • Note 2: Our model expected five scored event, with a 40% chance of a sixth “max” event.
  • Note 3: Our simple models only consider an athlete’s finish in event 1 and calculates the probability of a top 30 overall finish using data from the past 5 Opens. This is summarized in the following chart. 
  • Note 4: Our advanced models have a prior belief about each athlete and consider how they have performed in previous Opens. These prior beliefs are blended with current results.The models then run thousands of simulations to determine the probabilities and range of expected outcomes.

Some Findings:

  • In 2019, the cutoff line for the top 20 extended to 31st for men and 35th for women. Our model cuts the line at 30th, however, so it is likely all the athletes have slightly better odds than we are giving them.
  • The lowest rank of a male athlete to make the top 30 was Scott Panchik, who went from 631st after week 1 to 13th overall in 2018.
  • The lowest ranked female athlete was Tia-Clair Toomey, also in 2018, who went from 400th to 12th overall. The fact that 2018 had an extra workout with 18.2a clearly helped these two athletes. In 2019, three women came from outside the top 300 into the top 30, with Kristi Eramo making the largest jump from 373rd to 26th. Only one man accomplished this and that was Logan Collins who went from 380th to 22nd.

Continue reading…

Things To…


WATCH: A Day in the Life of Kari Pearce
Nate Edwardson spends an “active recovery” day with Games athlete Kari Pearce in Long Island, NY. Pearce incorporates swimming with her endurance coach, some of her regular eating, and a few private training clients.


GET: Help With Your Gymnastics
The Open is here but there’s still time to improve your gymnastics or get that first muscle-up. Join the Invictus online Gymnastics program, and get three days a week of supplemental work to improve your gymnastics.


GET: Nutrition Coach Certified
Turn your passion into a career through the WAG coach certification program. Not only will you become a nutrition science expert but you will master WAG’s specific macro-focused methodology that has coached Games athletes like Camille Leblanc-Bazinet and Cole Sager.


WATCH: Mini Paleo Pumpkin Pies with Gingerbread Cookie Crust
Adorable paleo healthy mini pumpkin pies with gingerbread cookie crust. These gluten free and dairy free mini pumpkin pies are naturally sweetened, super cute and seriously delicious!


Today’s edition of the Morning Chalk Up is powered by


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Prospera Naturals Tincture are designed to deliver noticeable results fast, keeping these stressors in check and helping your body stay balanced. Choose the 15 or 30mg of CBD, for your ideal dose.
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Chalk Up Community

  • BATTLE CANCER LONDON — Battle Cancer London 2019 is returning to Olympia London, this Saturday, October 19. Teams of four will compete in WODs, that are designed to level the playing field between professional athletes and regular gym-goers. All funds raised go to Battle Cancer, an organization who creates a community to support those affected by cancer.
  • SOUTH LOOP GAMES — The South Loop Games will be held at South Loop Strength and Fitness in Chicago, IL Saturday, November 23 for individuals and Sunday, November 24 for teams. Regisration closes November 8 and partners include MUSH, RXBAR and Bear Komplex.
  • STRONGMAN 101 — CrossFit No Boundaries in San Juan Capistrano, CA is holding an eight-week Strongman 101 course beginning October 28.

CHALK UP IN 2 MINUTES (a highlight reel around social media of CrossFit pros and average joes)

Amp Human has partnered with Invictus for PR Lotion Stacie Tovar shares her ten-year transformation with CrossFit • Daniel Kunitz clean and jerks 271 poundsEnter to win the True Protein Ford Ranger Raptor • Nine-year-old Jaimon Mogard snatches 83 pounds • James Townsend deadlifts 550 pounds for five • Happy tenth wedding anniversary to Heather and Ben Bergeron.

…and we hope you’re as excited for 20.2 as Joy and Claire are.

Tia-Clair Toomey Celebrates Women in Sports — Tia- Clair Toomey and husband Shane Orr attended the Women’s Health Australia 2019 Women in Sports Awards.

–“Not only were we able to recognize & celebrate the variety of sports we have in Australia for females. We also got to acknowledge the incredible women out there putting in the hard work and dedication to give their very best and inspire the rest of the nation.

— “A big congratulations to all of the award winners, so deserving and thank you so much to everyone that made this night possible. P.S. To all the males out there supporting us along our journey I want to thank you for standing by us throughout the thick and thin.”

— Toomey was also just recognized by the magazine as one of the six biggest moments for women in sport in 2019.

Caffeine and Kilos Co-Founder and CEO Brings Home Gold — Danny Lehr, the Co-Founder and CEO of Caffeine & Kilos, competed for Team USA at Masters World Cup for Weightlifting earlier this month in San Diego, CA. He took home a gold medal for his division and class.

— “Representing Team USA, Danny competed in the M35 Age Group and Weight Category 89. He placed number one in his division by lifting 113 kilograms (249 pounds) in the Snatch event. During the Clean & Jerk portion of the competition, Danny peaked at 153 kilograms (337 pounds), an impressive 20 kilograms higher than second place. Danny ended the event with a total SMF of 331.940 kilograms, bringing home the gold for the United States.”


“I Submerged Myself Underwater with a Dumbbell and Learned to Breathe with XPT. P.S. I Can’t Swim.,” by Katie Ferraro, Morning Chalk Up 

CrossFit is all about preparing for the unknown and unknowable, with seemingly endless options across modal domains. Every day that we walk into the gym, we are met with physical and mental challenges that directly correlate to functions in life outside the gym. However, for the everyday athlete, there is a limit in some regards based on factors like space and equipment.

So what happens when you get outside of the gym, in an environment so far from your comfort zone that it might as well be a foreign country? You adapt.

This past weekend, the Morning Chalk Up team was offered a spot in an Extreme Performance Training (XPT) in Malibu, California. The training, or as its defined, “A performance lifestyle system focused on breath, movement, and recovery methods,” was developed by Big Wave Surfer Laird Hamilton and Professional Volleyball player Gabby Reece. The pair opened their home to select media, gym owners, Navy SEALs, Olympians, and multiple athletes across multiple disciplines to experience everything it had to offer.

As a team, we started the day off with breathwork, incorporating several different methods across a wide spectrum, drawing on influences from various teachers. By starting the day working on optimizing our breathing, we prepared our bodies for the challenges ahead, moving oxygen to all vital organs and tissues in our bodies. XPT Performance Breathing as a system is intentionally designed to produce one of the following results: to calm and focus the mind, improve C02 tolerance, or recover the body.

Four-time CrossFit Games athlete Bryce Smith of Invictus Fitness was part of the crew for the day.

“My biggest takeaway was using the breath to control the nervous system and state of mind,” Smith said. “Using the breath to stay calm while being exposed to various forms of stress and practicing clearing carbon dioxide really enabled me to challenge my perceived limitations.”


10/18 – 10/20: The Cyprus Throwdown (Island of Cyprus)
10/19: Battle for the Bell VIII: End Bell (Southbury, CT)
10/19: HYROX Miami (Miami, FL)
10/19: Operation Enduring Warrior (Avondale, AZ)
10/26: CrossFit Turbine’s 2019 Strongman Classic (Carol Stream, IL)
10/26: Duo Costume-Palooza 2019 (Denver, CO)
10/26: CrossFit Roots Anniversary Party (Boulder, CO)
10/26: Share the Pain (Nashville, TN)
11/2: Best of the Wurst (New Braunfels, TX)
11/2: Gangs of the Midatlantic Team Competition (Williamsburg , VA)
11/2: Second Annual 12-Hour WODathon (Houston, TX)
11/2: Coed Clash Competition (Oneonta, AL)
11/2 – 11/3: USAW Level 1 Training (Kansas City, MO)
11/8: Veterans Day Bash 2019 (Lubbock, TX)
11/8 – 11/10: The Kalis Games (Manila, Phillipines)
11/9: Patriot Challenge 3.0 (Longview, TX)
11/9: The Garage Games Masters Tour (Rochelle Park, NJ)
11/9: The Battle at Branded One (Las Vegas, NV)
11/9: Battle on the Airfield at Skyraider CrossFit (Riverside, CA)
11/9: The Goat Gauntlet (Hartford, CT)
11/9: The Bay Games (Huskisson, NSW AUS)
11/9: Third Annual Battle on the Airfield (Riverside, CA)
11/9: Sweat For Sweeney (Keene, NH) 
11/9 – 11/10: Fallout 2 Presented by Battleground Events (Long Beach, CA)
11/9: Emerald Coast Honor Games (Destin, FL)
11/16: Warrior Affiliate League Delta Force (City of Industry, CA)
11/16: O-Town Throwdown 2019 (Oconomowoc, WI)
11/16: The Garage Games Masters Tour (Blue Springs, MO)
11/16: The Garage Games Masters Tour (Clemmons, NC)
11/16: The Garage Games Masters Tour (Plainville, CT)
11/16: The Pain Cave SD (San Diego, CA)
11/16: 2019 Graveyard Games (Kenosha, WI)
11/16: Mid-Atlantic Masters Classic (Abingdon, MD)
11/16: 3rd Annual Bombs & Barbells (Pooler, GA)
11/16: Mama Said Knock You Out (Canton, CT)
11/16 – 11/17: 24 Hours of Heroes (London, ON)
11/17: Annual Ghetto Games (Plainville, MA)
11/17: Crews For Brews (Windsor, Ontario)

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