Predicting the Open, Part 2

Good morning and welcome to the Morning Chalk Up. Today’s edition is powered by Working Against Gravity, the Official Sports Nutrition Sponsor of the Morning Chalk Up. Ready for 18.3? Check out the Open Prep Guide by Working Against Gravity. Inside, you’ll get key nutrition strategies to dominating the Open, competition strategy from Brute Strength and recovery secrets from The Active Life.

“But it ain’t about how hard you hit. It’s about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward; how much you can take and keep moving forward. That’s how winning is done! Now if you know what you’re worth, then go out and get what you’re worth, but you gotta be willing to take the hits, and not pointing fingers saying you ain’t where you wanna be because of him, or her, or anybody. Cowards do that and that ain’t you. You’re better than that!” — Rocky Balboa

PREDICTING THE OPEN, PT. 2

Weeks 3 – 5 are our favorite part of the Open. Early jitters and excitement have washed away (a little) and now we’re settling in for the long grind. It’s like round three in a five round WOD; this one’s the worst, but it’s also the first one we can actually start to offer a soft prediction on.

Consider these quick facts:

1. There has only been one movement repeated in the same year: bar facing burpees in 16.1 and 16.5. For now we’re going to ignore that. 
2. Every repeat since 2014 has been re-tested the same week they were originally announced. (See Open Repeats data here)
3. No WODs from 2013 or 2015 have been repeated. 2011 and 2014 have had two WODs repeated.
4. A WOD from week 3 has NEVER been re-tested.
5. Thrusters have always been in the final week. 
6. Dave Castro’s hint actually makes a lot of sense for a repeat; same flower…

We’re predicting 18,3 will be 15.3 and here’s why:

Based on movements already seen in 18.1 and 18.2/a, and assuming no movements are repeated again, the following are the ONLY WODs which can be repeated as of now: 11.2, 11.3, 12.2, 13.2, 13.5, 14.3, 15.3, 15.4, 16.3, 17.3, and 17.5. (Feel free to follow our data here).

If we apply fact #2, and remove everything that didn’t come in week 3, we’re left with: 11.3, 14.3, 15.3, 16.3, and 17.3.

We can cut 11.3 cause we’re not doing five minutes of just squat cleans and jerks after 18.2/a. 14.3, which is box jumps and heavy deadlifts seems an unlikely candidate a) because of the weight and b) because that would be the third WOD from 2014 re-tested.

That leaves 15.3, 16.3 and 17.3 all as strong options. Among those, we think 15.3 is the strongest choice. It bring back ring muscle-ups and includes staples like wall balls and double unders, which have been in every Open. If we had to pick a second pick choice it would be 16.3. We just can’t see the heavy
snatches coming after 18.2a not to mention the fact that the WOD closely mirrors 14.2 which was already repeated.

YOU CAN ROW 15 CALS ON A CONCEPT2 IN JUST 5 PULLS.

That sounds fake.

We know, that headline sounds like one of those really bad marketing scams but we promise we’re not selling you anything. 

OK, you just pull really hard right?

Wrong. You could try that but three cals per stroke is kinda ridiculous. Instead, you could try this hack, which requires very little time and effort that the guys at Dark Horse Rowing just detailed in this walkthrough, where 15 cals took five pulls and 35 seconds. 

Again, we know it sounds like we’re selling you fake insurance or something nefarious but just watch the video. 

I’m not convinced.

You might not be, but the founder of Concept2, Peter Dreissigacker, is and he issued this statement explaining why:

“There is a time limit, programmed into the monitor, of 6 seconds from the finish of a drive to the start of the next drive.  A delay of more than 6 seconds signals the monitor that you have stopped rowing. The monitor’s self-calibrating function uses the completed stroke cycle (drive, recovery, drive) to determine the drag factor to use in calculating the correct data you see on the monitor.  Unfortunately, by pausing for 7 seconds before you start your next drive, the monitor assumes you have stopped rowing…and the monitor never ‘sees’ a complete stroke (it determined you had stopped rowing before it could sense the end of your recovery). If the monitor never ‘sees’ a complete stroke, the drag factor will not be correctly determined and the data displayed will not be correct. In terms of getting a valid score, what are you are doing here is like painting ’45’ on your 25-pound
weight plates.”

That’s awesome!

No, it’s not awesome; it’s cheating, and it also shows that an athlete could have used a Concept2 to post a VERY competitive score. 

If it’s cheating, why did you post it?

So glad you asked. One reason, so that everyone in this community knows that it’s cheating, judges reviewing future Open rowing videos can spot athletes trying to pull a fast one, and so that power brokers in the sport of CrossFit are aware that this issue and can take action to make sure it doesn’t affect the outcome of our sport.

THINGS TO…

WATCH: Brooke Ence Battles 18.2

Follow Brooke as she reacts to the live announcement and tackles 18.2 and a redo just for good measure. 

THE OPEN WITH BROOKE.

HEAR: Christmas Abbott, Pressure is a Privilege

Christmas joins the Sisu Way podcast to talk about one of her darkest years, how she is grateful for tragedy, the collateral beauty associated with it, what helps her recover emotionally, and her pregnancy.

SOON TO BE MOM.

WIN: A Trip to Vegas For Two

And this isn’t just any trip to Vegas cause Margaux Alvarez is coming and bringing her bestie too. All you need to do is signup to win. 

ENTER HERE.

EAT: 10-Minute Nutella Pudding

We’re not sure where this falls on your macro diet scale, but something about pudding and Nutella screams ‘must share with the entire world’ … so we did. 

SHARING IS CARING. MAKE US SOME!

Today’s edition of the Morning Chalk Up is powered by

CHALK UP COMMUNITY

• BE THE CHANGE — Inspired by James Lancaster’s Kings of Grit, Warren Brooks from CrossFit Over the Mountain is working to start his own chapter with inmates of Jefferson County Jail in Birmingham, AL and he needs your support. 

CHALK UP IN 2 MINUTES (a highlight reel around social media of CrossFit pros and average joes)

Brooke Ence’s sweat angel is fitter than your sweat angel • Something we missed back in February…Fourteen-year-old Morgan McCullough hit a 115kg/253 pound snatch and a 156kg/343 pound clean and jerk, making him the #1 Youth Weightlifter in America and secured him a spot on the Youth Pan-American team heading to Colombia in June • Mattie Rogers passes 500k followers on Instagram • Carleen Mathews got voted into the Longview Girls Softball Association Hall of Fame.

RXBAR Announces Expansion into Nut Butters — Yesterday, news dropped that RXBAR is getting into the $6.5 billion nut butter business. Sold as single serving packets, $1.39 – $1.99 per pack or $13 – $20 for 10-pack sleeves, RXBAR Nut Butters will be hitting their online store and Amazon in May. Rollout flavors will include Peanut Butter, Honey Cinnamon Peanut Butter and Vanilla Almond Butter and will be made with some of the same core ingredients as their protein bars; think nuts, dates and egg whites. They’ll debut the nut butters at this weekend’s Expo West where we hope to snag a
sample for The GRAMS. 

The MUST READ account by Autumo CrossFit’s James Townsend and one of his young athletes being bullied at school, and how you can help — 

“YOU ARE AMAZING! YOU ARE BRAVE!! YOU ARE STRONG!!!” This is Maddy Espinoza. A wrestler, Jiu Jitsu practitioner and CrossFit athlete. She is 14yrs old and currently being bullied in High school.

Maddy is verbally tortured and body shamed everyday because of her physical appearance. Forcing herself to never show any parts of her body. She is ashamed to show her shoulders, arms and legs because other kids says she looks like a man or wants to be a man.

She walks the halls with her head down and in silence. She comes home every night and cries herself to sleep wondering why she has to be ridiculed for wanting to do something she loves. Maddy is a loving, caring beautiful teenager that wants to fit in with her peers but she stands out. And that’s ok.

Sometimes fitting in isn’t the cool thing. You have to be different to stand out and different is beautiful. Different means being able to be you. You are 1 of a kind. Their aren’t that many of you. Standing out is extra ordinary. Because when you are ordinary, they aren’t talking about you. But when you are extra ordinary, they’re talking about you. Nobody in her school will understand what she is striving to achieve on the CrossFit Games level.

I think of names like Katrin Davidsdottir, Sam Briggs, Brooke Ence, Lindsey Valenzuela and many other women in CrossFit who pave the way for young girls like Maddy to be bold, confident, fearless and strong in their own bodies. To never let the opinion of others break you down because they don’t understand you. That’s their problem and their insecurities of their own. It doesn’t have to be yours. So you continue to bold, confident and fearless to stand up for yourself and walk the halls with your head high and proud of who you are and who you’re building yourself up to be. Your parents love you, We love you, The CrossFit community loves you and we all have your back!!!”

Here’s how you can help — If even 1% of you share a message of love and support for this young athlete she’d be overwhelmed trying to read them all. So we’re asking you to write her a note of encouragement and we’ll make sure she gets them, all 1000 of them!

…BTW, Maddy currently ranks 6th in the world in her division after 18.2.

3/8: CrossFit Open 18.3 (Worldwide)3/10: Women Who WOD (Barbados)

3/15: CrossFit Open 18.4 (Worldwide)

3/22: CrossFit Open 18.5 (Worldwide)

3/23: The Redeemed and the Dominant: Fittest on Earth is released (iTunes)

3/24: 4th Annual St. Paddy’s Day Competition (Norwood, MA)

4/7: Battle of the Badges (Anaheim, CA)

4/7: The Revolution (San Antonio, TX)

4/7: GenX Masters Comp (Salem, MA)

4/13 – 4/15: The Railyard Games (Albuquerque, NM)

4/14: Battle for the Mountain (Dawsonville, GA)

4/14: Appalachian Games (Asheville, NC)

4/14: Deuces Wild by Warrior Affiliate League (Baldwin Park, CA)

4/14: Atlas Blarney Stone Competition (Denver, CO)

4/14: RISE of the Masters (Statesboro, GA)

4/14 – 4/15: Mid-Atlantic Affiliate Challenge (Columbia, MD)

4/14 – 4/15: WOD Wars Fitfest (Dunedin, FL)

4/19: Teens and Masters Qualifier (Invitation Only)

4/20 – 4/22: Athens Throwdown (Athens, Greece)

4/21: Festivus Games (Nationwide)

4/21: Mayhem for MSR (Cookeville, TN)

4/21: Loganville Lockdown (Loganville, GA)

4/21: FoxWOD (Panama City Beach, FL)

4/21: Swamp Challenge (Gainesville, FL)

4/28: Battleground SoCal (Wimington, CA)

4/28: Girls Gone Rx (Cincinnati, OH)

4/28: Salem Slaughterfest (Salem, OR)

4/28: 3rd Annual Appletown Throwdown (Cornelia, GA)

4/28 – 4/29: Walter’s Cup Throwdown (Amsterdam, Netherlands)

4/28 – 4/29: Battle of the Bluffs (Council Bluffs, IA)

5/4 – 5/5: Tough As Nails (Lubbock, TX)

5/4 – 5/6: European Masters Throwdown (Budapest, Hungary)

5/5 – 5/6: Tribal Clash (Quarteira, Portugal)

5/5: Cinco de Mayo Classic (San Antonio, TX)

5/5: The Locomotive Games III (Youngstown, OH)

5/5: Granite Games Throwdown (Southaven,  MS)

5/11 – 5/12: Beast Mode Games (Greenville, SC)

5/11 – 5/12: Midwest Monster (Joplin, MO)

5/11 – 5/12: Reebok’s Ready for Action – Fittest in Israel (Israel)

5/12: Barbells for Bullies (Danbury, CT)

5/12: The Mountain Meltdown (Parks City, UT)

5/19: Raising the Bar for Recovery (Medina, OH)

5/19: East Coast Battle (Hanover, MD)

5/19: Barbells in the Burbs (Carol Stream, IL)

5/28: The HAMMY (Hudson, OH)

5/19 – 5/20: GameDay Mankato (Mankato, MN)

5/26: Beauty is a Beast 2 (Indian Rocks Beach, FL)