Predicting the CrossFit Open, Part 1
Welcome to the 2018 CrossFit Open. By 5 PM tonight, we’ll know exactly what Dave Castro has in store for us. Will it be a repeat? Will it include a movement we’ve never seen before? Will there be thrusters (everyone immediately knock on wood)? Honestly, we have no idea, but we know a lot about past Open WODs so here are some fun facts and noteworthy patterns we’ve noticed to help you pass the next few hours.
CrossFit Open Fun Facts
- 14.5 was the first task priority Open WOD (Translation: Go until you finish). There has been a task priority WOD every year since (14.5, 15.5, 16.5, 17.1 and 17.5).
- Only in 2014 was the opening workout a repeat. It was 11.1.
- No workouts from 2013 or 2015 have been repeated yet.
Predicting the Open
Honestly there is no predicting the Open, but when you lay out all the past WODs some patterns emerge.
- The following movements have been in all seven years of the Open: chest to bar pull-ups, double unders, snatches, thrusters, toes to bar, and wall balls. There were no burpees in 2015.
- Every single thruster workout has been a couplet and it’s always been the final workout.
- Since 2014, once a movement is introduced it usually sticks around. (Examples: row in 2014, handstand push-ups in 2015, bar muscle-ups in 2016. The only exception to this is the overhead lunge in 2016, which was not repeated).
- As we noted above, Dave also has repeated a test-priority WOD in each year since it was introduced in 2014.
- In 2017, the new movements introduced were dumbbell cleans, front rack dumbbell walking lunges and dumbbell snatch.
- Out of six possible repeats, Dave chose to hold the repeat during the same week it was introduced every single year except in 2013. See here.
Our Own Thoughts
- The repeat will be 17.1. It retests a completely new movement with the new burpee and snatch standard laid out in 18.0. People have been sharing this photo a lot, showing a rig in the background. That means absolutely nothing. Patrick Vellner and Brent Fikowski had the same looking rig in the background while performing 17.1 last year.
- Thrusters will be in week 5 again.
- For the first time, Dave will include two gymnastics movements in the same WOD. Our definition of gymnastics is bar muscle-ups, chest to bar, and any form of muscle-up. We’ve seen a ton of athletes practicing chest to bar into muscle-ups. The combination of snatches, pull-ups, chest to bar, and bar muscle-ups was also a WOD from the 2014 CrossFit Games.
Here’s our data for Open movements and Open WOD repeats in case you want to dive deeper.
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