Predicting the Open, Part 3
So by now we’ve demonstrated our inability to accurately predict Open WODs. We’re not soothsayers, we just analyze past workouts to present a roadmap.
So with that, here’s what we’re thinking.
There are two scenarios: 18.4 is a repeat and 18.4 is not a repeat.
Scenario 1: 18.4 is NOT a repeat.
From Dave Castro’s tweet on Monday, “If you guys thought the first 3 tests were good. Wait until #18point4. That’s going to be something special,” it seems unlikely 18.4 is a repeat.
We analyzed all movements that have already been used in 2018 and crossed that with all movements ever used in the CrossFit Open. Assuming no repeated movements, the following remain and have been in at least 25% of all Open years:
Wall Balls — 100%
Thrusters — 100% (Final WOD of every Open)
Snatch — 100%
Chest to Bar — 100%
Deadlifts — 85.71%
Box Jumps — 71.43%
Barbell Clean — 57.14%
Barbell Clean and Jerk — 42.86%
Handstand Push-Ups — 42.86% (Every Open since first introduced in 2015 and always in week 4)
Shoulder to Overhead — 28.57%
We don’t know what the WOD will be, but there’s a very good chance that it will include one or more of those movements, aside from Thrusters which has always come in the final WOD.
Scenario 2: It’s a repeat.
Like we said, we don’t think it will be a repeat, but for academic purposes let’s look at all the possibilities.
- Every repeat WOD since 2014 has come in the same week the WOD was first introduced (i.e. 14.1 is 11.1 and 15.2 is 14.2, etc.)
- If we remove all movements already done in 2018, there are only seven WODs that can be repeated: 11.2, 11.3, 12.2, 13.2, 13.5, 14.3, 15.4, and 17.3.
- The only week 4 WOD left is 15.4.
- If Dave breaks from tradition, then we think 11.2, 11.3 and 12.2 are fairly unlikely; 11.2 because we’re not doing push-ups, 11.3 and 12.2 because they’re just 5 mins of squat clean and jerks and 10 minutes of snatches, respectively.
- We think 13.2 and 17.3 are strong candidates for repeats.
So there you have it.