As we look towards the announcement of 19.2 on Thursday, we can already eliminate certain workouts from the line-up of possible repeats. Only once in the history of the CrossFit Open, has the same workout showed up twice in the same year.

A long as we don’t see a movement repeated in 2019, the following nine workouts are out for possible repeats: 

11.5, 12.4, 13.3, 14.4, 15.3, 15.5, 16.4, 17.4 and 18.1.

Why? Because all those workouts include either wall balls or rowing or both, which we just did in 19.1.

OK, got it. So what could be repeated?

Predicting Open repeats is a lot like predicting which two teams will compete in the Super Bowl after week 1. That is to say, it’s not that probable we’ll be accurate. 

But here are a few helpful facts to keep in mind:

1. There has only been one movement repeated in the same year: bar facing burpees in 16.1 and 16.5. So let’s assume no repeated movements for the sake of this exercise.
2. Every repeat since 2014 has been re-tested the same week it was originally announced. (Ex. 11.1 is 14.1)
3. No WODs from 2013 has ever been repeated; 2011 has had three repeats and 2014 has had two.
4. Thrusters have been in the final week every year. 
5. A WOD from week 3 has NEVER been re-tested.
6. No two-part WOD has ever been repeated. (Ex. 18.2 and 18.2, or 15.1 and 15.2a)

OK, now that we got that out of the way, if week 2 is a repeat workout, which of the following is the most likely choice.

[chart title=”Repeated Open Workouts (2011 – 2019)”]

	Week 1	Week 2	Week 3	Week 4	Week 5	Week 6
2011	11.1	11.2	11.3	11.4	11.5	11.6
2012	12.1	12.2	12.3	12.4	12.5
2013	13.1	13.2	13.3	13.4	13.5
2014	14.1	14.2	14.3	14.4	14.5
2015	15.1	15.2	15.3	15.4	15.5
2016	16.1	16.2	16.3	16.4	16.5
2017	17.1	17.2	17.3	17.4	17.5
2018	18.1	18.2	18.3	18.4	18.5
2019	19.1	19.2	19.3	19.4	19.5

[/chart]

More Likely

13.2

AMRAP 10
115 pound Shoulder to overhead, 5 reps
115 pound Deadlift, 10 reps
15 Box jumps, 24″ box

— Why? No workout from 2013 has ever been repeated so it’s high time we see one. It’s also a classic CrossFit triplet involving three very foundational movements that every athlete should be able to perform RX or scaled.

Somewhat Likely

16.2

Beginning on a 4-minute clock, complete as many reps as possible of:
25 toes-to-bars
50 double-unders
15 squat cleans, 135 / 85 lb

This process continues with increasing weights until the athlete has completed all rounds.

— Why? This is one of those workouts where you’ll need to earn the barbell, something Dave has been known to do in recent years. It also highlights an often under-programmed movement, the squat clean.

18.2 and 18.2a

1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10 reps for time of:
Dumbbell squats (50/35)
Bar-facing burpees

18.2a
1-rep-max clean

Time cap: 12 minutes to complete 18.2 AND 18.2a

— Why? This one almost made our unlikely list, but the fact that a two-part workout has never been repeated makes it a fair candidate for a re-test.

Unlikely

11.2

AMRAP 15
9 Deadlifts (155lbs / 70kg)
12 Push-ups
15 Box jumps (24″)

— Why? Because 11.2 includes push-ups, a movement which has only ever been in the 2011 Open and very challenging to judge.  If a movement doesn’t show up for seven straight years there’s probably a good chance it’s not coming back.

12.2

AMRAP 10
75 pound Snatch, 30 reps
135 pound Snatch, 30 reps
165 pound Snatch, 30 reps
210 pound Snatch, as many reps as possible

— Why? As the only workout other than 12.1 to include just one movement (12.1 was 7 minutes of burpees to a target), a single modality style of workout has never been repeated since 12.1. In recent years, athletes who want the heavy barbell have been forced to earn it by proving their fitness, not by just lifting more weight.

14.2

Every 3 minutes for as long as possible complete:

2 rounds of:
10 overhead squats
10 chest-to-bar pull-ups

Every 3:00, 2 reps are added to each movement.

— Why? As a former repeat, it seems less likely that 14.2 is a strong candidate. Last year, it was a candidate CrossFit’s first ever Facebook community poll for the week 5 workout, but that doesn’t really help its case of being selected again.

17.2

AMRAP 12:
2 rounds of:
50-ft. weighted walking lunge (50/35)
16 toes-to-bars
8 power cleans
Then, 2 rounds of:
50-ft. weighted walking lunge
16 bar muscle-ups
8 power cleans
Etc., alternating between toes-to-bars and bar muscle-ups every 2 rounds.

— Why? 17.2 includes two movements, the dumbbell lunge and the dumbbell clean, which only appear once in the Open. It’s not that these are bad movements, it’s likely that Dave likes to throw new movements in from time to time to mix things up and see how athletes adapt. The surprise is over and since 2017, athletes have incorporated a lot more dumbbells into their training. We think another dumbbell movement like the devils press or double DB snatch is more likely than repeating these two.

[chart title=”Movements in the Open (2011 – 2018)”]

2		2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
3	Toes to Bar	11.5	12.3	13.4	14.4	15.1	16.2	17.2	18.1
4	Double Unders	11.1	12.4	13.3	14.1	15.3	16.2	17.5	18.3
5	Chest to Bar	11.6	12.5	13.5	14.2	15.2	16.1	17.3	18.5
6	Thrusters	11.6	12.5	13.5	14.5	15.5	16.5	17.5	18.5
7	Deadlifts	11.2		13.2	14.3	15.1	16.4	17.4	18.4
8	Burpee	[11.4]	12.1	13.1	[14.5]		[16.1/5]	17.1	[18.2]
9	*Burpee Over Bar	11.4			14.5		16.1/5		18.2
10	Snatch	11.1	12.2	13.1	14.1	15.1	16.3	17.3
11	Wall Ball	11.5	12.4	13.3	14.4	15.3	16.4	17.4		19.1
12	Ring Muscle Up	11.4	12.4	13.3	14.4	15.3			18.3
13	Row (for cals)				14.4	15.5	16.4	17.4	18.1	19.1
14	Box Jumps	11.2	12.3	13.2	14.3			17.1
15	Overhead Squat	11.4			14.2	15.2			18.3
16	HSPU					15.4	16.4	17.4	18.4
17	Clean	11.5			14.4	15.4	16.2
18	Bar Muscle Up						16.3	17.2	18.3
19	DB Snatch							17.1	18.3
20	Clean and Jerk	11.3		13.4
21	Push Press/S2O		12.3	13.2
22	DB Hang Clean and Jerk								18.1
23	DB Front Squat								18.2
24	1RM Clean								18.2a
25	Handstand Walk								18.4
26	1RM Clean and Jerk					15.1a
27	DB Clean							17.2
28	DB Lunge							17.2
29	Overhead Lunge						16.1
30	Push Ups	11.2

[/chart]

LEGEND

• Yellow represents a WOD which can’t be repeated without repeating a movement already programmed in 2019.
• Green represents past Week 2 workouts which are possible repeats.