Is the Open a Good Predictor for Performance at the CrossFit Games?
Just like last year, we kick off the CrossFit Games season with the Open. However, unlike most of the Open’s history, it is now only a three week event, and it qualifies a large group (10% by continent) to the next stage of competition. This makes it far less significant for the athletes at the top of the sport who are hoping to eventually qualify for the Games than the Open used to be. The question we’re after today is, does less importance on the Open mean it is a bad predictor for eventual results at the Games?
The 2021 season is the only truly relevant data we have because it was the first season with the Quarterfinals stage. Since 40 men and 40 women eventually would qualify for the CrossFit Games, we have gone ahead and compared the top 40 Open finishers to the 40 Games athletes in each division.
Here’s a quick rundown of how the top 40 men, and top 40 women, from the Open, fared over the course of the rest of the season:
Men:
| Open Rank | Athlete | Season Finish |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeff Adler | Games |
| 2 | Scott Panchik | Games |
| 3 | Travis Mead | DNP QF |
| 4 | Saxon Panchik | Games |
| 5 | Rich Froning | Games (team) |
| 6 | Noah Ohlsen | Games |
| 7 | Sam Cournouyer | Games |
| 8 | Cole Greashaber | LCQ |
| 9 | Agustin Richelme | Games |
| 10 | Oleg Lascenko | Semis |
| 11 | Cedric Lapointe | LCQ |
| 12 | Giorgos Karavis | Games |
| 13 | Stas Solodov | Gamse (DNP) |
| 14 | Jonne Koski | Games |
| 15 | Elliot Simmonds | Semis |
| 16 | Logan Collins | Semis |
| 17 | Jay Crouch | Games |
| 18 | Colten Mertens | Games |
| 19 | Jayson Hopper | Games |
| 20 | Pat Vellner | Games |
| 21 | Alex Kotoulas | LCQ |
| 22 | Brent Fikowski | Games |
| 23 | Hunter Holifield | LCQ |
| 24 | Cody Anderson | QFs |
| 25 | Mitch Wagner | Semis |
| 26 | Phil Toon | LCQ |
| 27 | Alexksandar Ilin | Games |
| 28 | Joshua Al-Chamaa | LCQ |
| 29 | Frederik Aegidius | Semis |
| 30 | Spencer Panchik | LCQ |
| 31 | Fabian Beneito | LCQ |
| 32 | Sean Gordon | Semis |
| 33 | Khan Porter | LCQ |
| 34 | Lazar Dukic | Games |
| 35 | Michael McKenna | DNP QF |
| 36 | Lukas Grouleff | Semis |
| 37 | Nick Mathew | LCQ |
| 38 | Reggie Fasa | Semis |
| 39 | Tyler Christophel | LCQ |
| 40 | Lucas Heuze | Games (teams) |
| Individual Games | 17 |
| Team Games | 2 |
| Last Chance Qualifier | 10 |
| Semifinals | 8 |
| Quarterfinals | 1 |
| Did Not Participate or Pass Quarterfinals | 2 |
| Total | 40 |
Women:
| Open Rank | Athlete | Season Finish |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tia-Clair Toomey | Games |
| 2 | Emma Cary | Games |
| 3 | Kara Saunders | Games |
| 4 | Kristi Eramo O'Connell | Games |
| 5 | Mallory O'Brien | Games |
| 6 | Emma McQuaid | Games |
| 7 | Dani Speegle | Games |
| 8 | Elena Carratala Sahanhuja | LCQ |
| 9 | Brooke Wells | Games |
| 10 | Haley Adams | Games |
| 11 | Matilde Garnes | LCQ |
| 12 | Gabriela Migala | Games |
| 13 | Danielle Brandon | Games |
| 14 | Katrin Davidsdottir | Games |
| 15 | Emma Lawson | Games (teen) |
| 16 | Kari Pearce | Games |
| 17 | Kristin Holte | Games |
| 18 | Amanda Fusuma | Semis |
| 19 | Andrea Nisler | Games (teams) |
| 20 | Amanda Barnhart | Games |
| 21 | Bethany Shadburne | Games |
| 22 | Chloe Gauvin-David | Games (teams) |
| 23 | Larissa Cunha | Games (DNP- PEDs) |
| 24 | Amy Morton | Semis |
| 25 | Sasha Nievas | Games |
| 26 | Carolyne Prevost | Games |
| 27 | Paulina Haro | Games (teen) |
| 28 | Caron-Ann Reason-Thibault | Injury |
| 29 | Thuri Helgadottir | Games |
| 30 | Kristine Best | Semis (injury WD) |
| 31 | Madeline Shelling | Games (teams) |
| 32 | Karin Freyova | LCQ |
| 33 | Mekenzie Riley | Games |
| 34 | Shelby Neal | Semis |
| 35 | Ellie Turner | Games |
| 36 | Jacqueline Dahlstrom | Games |
| 37 | Mandi Janowitz | DNP QF |
| 38 | Sydney Michalyshen | Games |
| 39 | Paige Semenza | LCQ |
| 40 | Marnie Sykes | Games (teams) |
| Individual Games | 24 |
| Team Games | 4 |
| Teen (Age Group) Games | 2 |
| Last Chance Qualifier | 4 |
| Semifinals | 4 |
| Did Not Participate or Pass Quarterfinals | 2 |
| Total | 40 |
Notable Highlights:
- 42.5% of the eventual men’s Games field also finished in the top 40 of the Open in 2021
- 60% of the eventual women’s field also finished in the top 40 of the Open in 2021
- That means over half (51.25%) of the eventual Games field also finished top 40 in the Open
On the opposite side of things, there were a total of five athletes who made the top 40 in the open (three men and two women) who did not participate in Semifinals or the Age Group Online Qualifiers. Of those five, four of them were either injured or chose not to compete, and only one of them actually tried and failed to make Semifinals.
What About the Games Athletes Themselves?
If half of the Games field was also in the top 40 of the Open, what about the other half?
Men:
| Top 40 | 17 |
| 41-100 | 15 |
| Top 200 | 3 |
| 200+ | 5 |
Women:
| Top 40 | 24 |
| 41-100 | 9 |
| Top 200 | 4 |
| 200+ | 3 |
To categorize it a different way:
- The average Open finish for the 40 men at the Games was 83rd
- The average Open finish for the 40 women at the Games was 61st
- If you drop the lowest four Open finishes for the men that average drops to 53rd
- If you drop the lowest four Open finishes for the women that average rops to 38th
- If you drop the next four lowest those average drop to 40 for the men and 29 for the women
- That means that 80% of the eventual Games averaged a finished of 40th for the men and 29th for the women in the Open
And ultimately that means that despite the fact that the Open is less important than ever for the best CrossFitters in the world, it was still a very, very good predictor for the rest of the season.
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