After a Rough Start Patrick Vellner Dominates at Rogue Invitational
After six completed events, Patrick Vellner currently sits in first place with a commanding 90 point lead over reigning 2023 CrossFit Games champ Jeffrey Adler.
For anyone new to the sport this might have been a surprise, but for regular CrossFit fans Patrick Vellner’s performance at the Rogue Invitational has actually been right on par with his other competitions.
Since finishing Event 1 in 13th place, Vellner has dominated the competition and has averaged a third-place event placing.
- Event 1: 13th
- Event 2: 2nd
- Event 3: 3rd
- Event 4: 4th
- Event 5: 3rd
- Event 6: 3rd
This is almost exactly what he did at the Games a couple of months ago where he finished Event 1 in 27th place, but then went on to collect eight top 10 finishes over the next 12 events, becoming the Second Fittest man on Earth for the third time in his career.
Chances of Victory
On the other side, Adler’s story at Rogue has actually been the opposite. After winning the first event, he has then had an average finish of ninth throughout the next five events.
This is still a great performance by Adler, but in a competition like Rogue with only 20 total athletes, a ninth place finish means you’re in the middle of the pack.
With only three events to go, Vellner’s victory is all but secured as Jeffrey Adler would have to beat Vellner by at least six places in each of the next three events in order to make up the 90 point deficit.
All Vellner has to do is average a finish of fifth or better and he will earn his second championship at the Rogue Invitational.
This gives Vellner a likelihood of victory of above 90%.
Momentum Heading into 2024
With a win here at Rogue against his two biggest competitors from the 2023 Games (Adler, Khrennikov), Vellner will prove once again that he indeed has what it takes to stand on the podium as champion instead of simply occupying another second or third place finish.
If Vellner can avoid a bad finish at the beginning of any competition, he would likely be impossible to beat.