Morning Chalk Up

Predicting the CrossFit Open, Part 2

March 8, 2018 BY Justin LoFranco
Predicting the CrossFit Open, Part 2
Photo Credit: Photo courtesy of CrossFit Inc.

Weeks 3 – 5 are our favorite part of the Open. Early jitters and excitement have washed away (a little) and now we’re settling in for the long grind. It’s like round three in a five round WOD; this one’s the worst, but it’s also the first one we can actually start to offer a soft prediction on.

Consider these quick facts:

  1. There has only been one movement repeated in the same year: bar facing burpees in 16.1 and 16.5. For now we’re going to ignore that.
  2. Every repeat since 2014 has been re-tested the same week they were originally announced. (See Open Repeats data here)
  3. No WODs from 2013 or 2015 have been repeated. 2011 and 2014 have had two WODs repeated.
  4. A WOD from week 3 has NEVER been re-tested.
  5. Thrusters have always been in the final week.
  6. Dave Castro’s hint actually makes a lot of sense for a repeat; same flower…

We’re predicting 18.3 will be 15.3 and here’s why:

Based on movements already seen in 18.1 and 18.2/a, and assuming no movements are repeated again, the following are the ONLY WODs which can be repeated as of now: 11.2, 11.3, 12.2, 13.2, 13.5, 14.3, 15.3, 15.4, 16.3, 17.3, and 17.5. (Feel free to follow our data here).

If we apply fact #2, and remove everything that didn’t come in week 3, we’re left with: 11.3, 14.3, 15.3, 16.3, and 17.3.

We can cut 11.3 cause we’re not doing five minutes of just squat cleans and jerks after 18.2/a. 14.3, which is box jumps and heavy deadlifts seems an unlikely candidate a) because of the weight and b) because that would be the third WOD from 2014 re-tested.

That leaves 15.3, 16.3 and 17.3 all as strong options. Among those, we think 15.3 is the strongest choice. It bring back ring muscle-ups and includes staples like wall balls and double unders, which have been in every Open. If we had to pick a second pick choice it would be 16.3. We just can’t see the heavy snatches coming after 18.2a not to mention the fact that the WOD closely mirrors 14.2 which was already repeated.

All past CrossFit Open movements

We analyzed every movement and every WOD for the past seven years, including the two we’ve seen in 2018 to calculate which WODs are eligible for a re-test.

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
DB Hang Clean and Jerk
18.1
Row (for cals) 14.4 15.5 16.4 17.4 18.1
Toes to Bar 11.5 12.3 13.4 14.4 15.1 16.2 17.2 18.1
*Burpee Over Bar 11.4 14.5 16.1/5 18.2
1RM Clean 18.2a
Burpee [11.4] 12.1 13.1 [14.5] [16.1/5] 17.1 [18.2]
DB Front Squat 18.2
1RM Clean and Jerk 15.1a
Push Ups 11.2
Overhead Lunge 16.1
DB Lunge 17.2
DB Snatch 17.1
DB Clean 17.2
Overhead Squat 11.4 14.2 15.2
Push Press/S2O 12.3 13.2
Chest to Bar 11.6 12.5 13.5 14.2 15.2 16.1 17.3
HSPU 15.4 16.4 17.4
Box Jumps 11.2 12.3 13.2 14.3 17.1
Deadlifts 11.2 13.2 14.3 15.1 16.4 17.4
Clean 11.5 14.4 15.4 16.2
Clean and Jerk 11.3 13.4
Ring Muscle Up 11.4 14.4 15.3
Double Unders 11.1 12.4 13.3 14.1 15.3 16.2 17.5
Bar Muscle Up 16.3 17.2
Snatch 11.1 12.2 13.1 14.1 15.1 16.3 17.3
Thrusters 11.6 12.5 13.5 14.5 15.5 16.5 17.5
Wall Ball 11.5 12.4 13.3 14.4 15.3 16.4 17.4
WOD that has already been repeated in a previous year.
Invalid for another reason.
WOD that includes a movement already done in 2018.
Actually possible