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Who’s Over and Under Heading into the CrossFit Games Finale?

August 6, 2022 by Patrick Blennerhassett and Joe Genetin-Pilawa

Photo Credit: Crispy Dudes

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We are heading into the final day of the 2022 NOBULL CrossFit Games, and suffice it to say, it’s been a crazy, whirlwind of a season. Tomorrow, new champions will be crowned, finishing stories and narratives that we’ve been watching all season. So, who’s overachieving, and who isn’t getting it done up until now?

We’ve got a rundown of where the elites/teams are at, and who’s over heading into Sunday, and who’s under:

Ricky Garard (Over)

Technically, the Australian last competed in 2017 and finished third (before being disqualified for a drug violation) so he’s just over if you are counting that. Everyone knew Garard was going to come into these Games like a bat out of hell, but few had him picked leading the men through the first half of the competition and in a solid podium position heading into the final day, so this is definitely an over.

Roman Khrennikov (Over)

The story for years has been what would happen at the Games if Khrennikov was ever able to secure a visa and now we know. The Russian has had a great Games so far, including taking his first career, in-person Games win in The Pool on Saturday morning. He heads into Sunday in a great position for his first Games podium.

Emma Lawson (Over)

After winning the 16-17 year old division last year, Lawson decided to forego her final year of eligibility as a teen and compete as an individual, and it looks like she made a good choice. In the Semifinals, Lawson won the Atlas Games, edging out Paige Powers and Carolin Connors. Then on the first day of the Games put herself inside the top-three and will enter the last day in fourth, only 1 point behind Danielle Brandon.

Arielle Loewen (Over)

Loewen has been on an upward trajectory since last season when she won the Granite Games and ultimately placed 14th at the Games in 2021. She looked strong in the off-season, placing 13th at the 2021 Rogue Invitational and then earning a podium spot in third at the 2022 Wodapalooza. Loewen had to battle her way into this year’s Games through the Last Chance Qualifier, but did so in convincing fashion and at the end of four days in Madison sits inside the top ten at eighth.

CrossFit Mayhem Freedom (Even)

Rich Froning and his fellow superhumans are right where they want to be, in first place, and they most likely will stay there until the end of the competition unless pigs fly or Hell freezes over. The question is will any other team give them a scare on the final day, maybe CrossFit Oslo Navy Blue?

Tia-Clair Toomey (Even)

Australian Tia-Clair Toomey is exactly where everyone thought she would be: in first place. She started off the competition looking shaky, but has since regained her championship form that looks to have her primed to capture her sixth title and soar into the clouds of CrossFit immortality.

Mal O’Brien (Even)

Mal O’Brien wasn’t this high on the leaderboard last year, but one can imagine she’s not nearly as happy as might be considering she held the leader’s jersey earlier in the week, so maybe this is a sad face emoji even for her. She is clearly the future of CrossFit, but the question is, is the future now, or will she have to wait one more year before Toomey decides to let some other people win titles for once?

Justin Medeiros (Even)

This one is tough because at this point last year Justin Medeiros was running away with the 2021 CrossFit Games. He took the leader’s jersey following “Hat Trick” and is sitting firmly in a podium position, but the inclusion of Garard and Khrennikov to the competition has definitely reshaped the landscape at the top of the Men’s division. It isn’t really much of an even, but over might not be taking the proper temperature of the men’s division at this point. However, if anyone is primed to hold the top spot on the final day, it is most definitely this guy. He’s on top by 16 points with 300 still on the table.

Brent Fikowski (Under)

Maybe this one should be an under with an asterisk, given Brent Fikowski, aka “The Professor” is widely known for starting competitions late and then peaking on the final day in a methodical climb back to the top. Fikowski may be right where he wants to be heading into the last day, but he’s definitely missed opportunities this week to put points on the board in events where the Fikowski of yester-year would’ve capitalized.

Patrick Vellner (Under)

Uncle Pat has been solidly in the top ten on the leaderboard all week and even took an event win in “Elizabeth Elevated.” But two finishes in the 30s on the sprint events hurt, as well as a couple of middle-of-the-pack results on others. It’s fair to say that most people expected Vellner to be in a podium spot at this point in the competition.

Laura Horvath (Under)

Sitting outside the top ten heading into the final day is not where most people expected to see last year’s second fittest woman. Some middling finishes in several and a disastrous event in the Echo Press with strict deficit block handstand push-ups, have stifled Horvath’s 2022 Games campaign thus far. She enters the last day in ninth place.

CrossFit Reykjavik (Under)

The superteam built to take down Froning and company, led by Icelandic star Annie Thorisdottir, are in fourth place, which is kind of where people thought they might be. Second would be more on point though given this rookie team looked built to podium. Sunday will test this quartet to see if these four can come together and channel some magic looking to upset the Mayhem Freedom dynasty.