Who’s Over and Under Heading into the 2022 Rogue Invitational Finale?

Photo Credit: Enrique Villasenor (@enriquevmedia)
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As we head into the final day of the 2022 Rogue Invitational, we’ve seen athletes emerge, while some have faltered. 

Tomorrow will prove to be the separator, with Event 8 kicking the day off with 27 parallette handstand push-ups, and Event 9 hitting 49 ring muscle ups after two days of intensive grip and pulling workouts. Event 10 has yet to be announced, and there will definitely be some drama and leaderboard shuffling during the final day of competition. 

As we close out Saturday, who’s overachieving, and who isn’t getting it done up until now? 

Roman Khrennikov (Even)

After taking second at the 2022 CrossFit Games, Khrennikov continues to prove that he’s the real deal. He’s only finished outside the top ten once thus far in the competition, demonstrating his balance and capacity in endurance, strength and stamina. His performance is of no surprise after watching him awe the CrossFit community at the Games this year. 

The question still remains if Khrennikov has what it takes to overtake Justin Medeiros as the top dog in the male division. He wrapped up Saturday with a second place finish in max lift, overtaking Medeiros heading into the final day of competition. 

Justin Medeiros (Even)

Mr. Consistency continues to showcase why he’s the two-time champ. Medeiros may not be a home run hitter, but his balanced fitness allows him to gain points as a variety of tests expose his competitors’ weaknesses. He will head into the final day ten points behind Khrennikov after a slight misstep in Event 7, “Texas Oak,” timing out, even though he ultimately hit the lift at 280lbs. 

Meanwhile Khrennikov took second in the event, just missing at 300lbs. With three events remaining, Medeiros has put himself in a good position to contend for his second consecutive Rogue Invitational. 

Patrick Vellner (Even)

Patrick Vellner has finished on the podium at the CrossFit Games in four of his seven individual appearances. He’s only finished outside the top ten once in 2019, making him one of the most decorated male competitors in CrossFit Games history. All of this can be attributed to Vellner’s incredible consistency and balanced fitness. 

Although he jokes about getting old and fading into the end stages of his competitive career, it’s no surprise that Vellner is battling for the top spot just 35 points out of first place. He wrapped up Saturday with only one event finish outside of the top ten, putting himself in a good position to make moves on Sunday. 

Chandler Smith (Over) 

After a difficult finish to the 2022 season, Chandler Smith looks to be in full form at this year’s Rogue Invitational. A recent documentary showed Smith’s battle with asthma during this past year’s Granite Games semi-final, where he failed to qualify and finished outside the top ten. Just five months later, Smith is living up to his potential, finishing Saturday in fourth place, just five points out from a podium spot moving into the final day of competition. 

Samuel Kwant (Over)

Samuel Kwant first burst onto the scene in 2016, winning Double DT in his rookie year at the CrossFit Games. Since then, Kwant has competed at the CrossFit Games five times, finishing 4th in 2022. He recently made a big move, leaving CompTrain and signing with HWPO going into the 2023 season. 

After a rough first event, finishing 16th in the “Texas Trail,” Kwant fought back with a string of top-six finishes, including an event win in “The Turtle” and a second-place finish in “DT with a Spin,” no doubt a wheelhouse workout for him combining DT with Echo Bike calories. He heads into the final day in fifth overall, 20 points out of a podium position.  

Ricky Garard (Under) 

After returning to CrossFit and redeeming himself at the 2022 CrossFit Games, Ricky Garard has had a quiet weekend up to this point in the competition at the Rogue Invitational. Garard had a dominant start to the Games this year, and held on to finish on the podium amidst some roadblocks across the weekend. 

It seemed that moving into the 2023 season, it would be a coin toss between Garard, Khrennikov and Medeiros in any event the three were competing against one another. Moving into the final day of competition, Garard is on the outside looking in, as he sits in 8th place while Khrennikov, and Medeiros battle for the top. 

Laura Horvath (Even)

Laura Horvath has dominated the Rogue Invitational thus far, finishing Saturday with a 75 point lead over Gabriela Migala to finish Saturday. Thus far in the competition the programming has showcased Horvath’s strengths, with intensive grip and pulling events being combined with odd objects, strength endurance, and power. 

These wheelhouse workouts allowed Horvath to take four consecutive wins between Events 3 and 6. The absence of Tia Toomey and Mal O’Brien makes Laura the logical favorite to win the 2022 Invitational. Going into the final day, Horvath has her weakest movement awaiting (Parallette Handstand Push-ups) being featured in Event 8. Has she extended a large enough lead to take home the gold with three events remaining, one of which has yet to be announced?

Gabriela Migala (Over)

After taking 8th place at the 2022 CrossFit Games, Gabriela Migala has continued to display her progression into the upper echelon of elite female competitors. Migala is only 75 points out of the lead after seven events, showcasing the broad range of her abilities. She’s predominantly known for her aerobic capabilities, but has illustrated the depth of her fitness since we’ve only seen one event longer than 15 minutes thus far in the 2022 Invitational. 

With one day left in the competition, Migala will have a chance to show if she’s ready to take the next step in being a real contender going into the 2023 season.  

Annie Thorisdottir (Over)

Coming off her first year in the team division, Thorisdottir has not missed a beat in her ability to contend for the podium in any competition she shows up to. After seven events, Thorisdottir’s worst placement is a tenth place finish in Event 3. Her incredible consistency puts her 85 points out of first place, and a strong contender to finish on the podium with three events remaining. Events 8 and 9 line up nicely for Thorisdottir’s strengths, setting the stage for a dramatic finish by weekend’s end. 

Danielle Brandon (Even)

With a lot of eyes on her, Brandon has been up and down over the course of the first seven events. She started off strong, taking first in the “Texas Trail” event to start the week, but followed that up the next day with a 19th-place finish in “Back Attack,” when she dumped the bar during her first set of heavy back squats and had to strip the weight and rerack it. 

She came back on Saturday with a third and second-place finish, taking advantage of the short time domains and her explosive power in “The Turtle” and “The Duel II,” but struggled again in the max load log press, taking 15th to end the day. Heading into Sunday, Brandon sits in sixth place with 455 points, only five behind Emma Lawson in fifth, and 50 behind Thorisdottir in third.

Ellie Turner (Over)

After an 18th place at the 2022 CrossFit Games, Turner has jumped to being a top contender, finishing Saturday in fourth place after seven events. She hasn’t finished outside the top ten since Event 3, as the programming shifted to shorter, high-power tests, which seem to favor Turner’s strengths. 

She notably dominated the sprint repeat bracket “Hat Trick” at the Games, displaying her dominant capacity for fast and powerful events. Going into the final day of competition, we’ll get to see if Ellie Turner can sustain this performance with high volume gymnastics on the docket, which have proved to be a roadblock for her in past events. 

Amanda Barnhart (Under)

The Rogue Invitational programming is well-known for its strength bias and focus on explosive power, and both are elements that are synonymous with Amanda Barnhart. Given those facts, it’s surprising that Barnhart has just quietly carded a couple of top five and a couple of top ten performances on her way to 450 points by Saturday night. 

She sits in seventh place, 10 points behind Emma Lawson in fifth and 55 points out of a podium position. Following her fourteenth place finish at the 2022 CrossFit Games, the lowest since her rookie year when she placed fifteenth, many expected Barnhart to bounce back at Rogue.

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